- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- interest rate
- 4.5%
The Bank of Israel’s Monetary Committee on 6 January 2025 left the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent, citing a still-moderate post-war recovery and a 12-month inflation rate of 3.4 percent that sits just above the 1–3 percent target band; VAT hikes, supply constraints and excess demand are expected to lift inflation in the first half of the year before it moderates into target in the second. The central bank’s Research Department now forecasts GDP growth of 0.6 percent in 2024, 4.0 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, while November’s data show a tight labour market, with broad unemployment at 3.2 percent and only moderate wage gains. Israel’s risk premium has fallen sharply, though it remains above pre-war levels; the shekel has firmed by about 0.5 percent against USD and 1.9 percent on a nominal effective basis since the previous decision. Globally, economic activity is expanding and major central banks have continued to lower rates. The committee reiterated that the policy path will depend on inflation’s convergence to target, financial-market stability, economic activity and fiscal developments.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to September 2026, the Bank of Israel reduced the interest rate by 125 basis points to 3.25 percent, after holding at 4.5 percent through September, cutting twice as disinflation became more established, pausing at 4.0 percent amid renewed conflict, and then resuming easing. The early holds reflected inflation still above or near the top of the target range, high inflation volatility, a tight labor market, and only moderate recovery in activity, all against high geopolitical uncertainty, with the Committee repeatedly citing risks from geopolitical developments, demand rising alongside supply constraints, worsening global terms of trade, and later fiscal developments. As inflation moved into the target range, expectations stayed around the midpoint, the shekel appreciated, and Israel’s risk premium declined, the Committee cut in November and January even as it noted a sharp rebound in activity, persistent labor tightness, and firm wage growth.
In the subsequent decisions, the Committee held in February and March as uncertainty around Iran resurfaced, energy prices lifted the inflation environment, and housing and labor supply pressures remained evident, then cut in May and July as inflation stayed around the midpoint, risk premia returned near prewar levels, and activity recovered after Operation Roaring Lion. The July decision also reflected lower energy prices and more moderate global geopolitical tension following the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran, even as the shekel had depreciated with high volatility, the labor market remained tight, wage growth was rapid, and housing inflation picked up. On September 1, the Committee cut by a further 25 basis points as inflation moderated below the midpoint, while noting that growth partly reflected recovery from Operation Roaring Lion, activity excluding production abroad by Israeli firms was more moderate, the labor market remained tight, and geopolitical uncertainty remained high, and reiterated that future moves would depend on inflation, economic activity, geopolitical uncertainty, and fiscal developments.