- Decision
- Raise
- Rate change
- 200 bps
- base rate
- 5.6%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova, meeting in an unscheduled session on 10 January 2025, raised the base rate on main short-term operations to 5.60 percent and set the overnight loan, repo and overnight deposit rates at 7.60 percent, 5.85 percent and 3.60 percent, respectively, aiming to counteract mounting inflationary pressure from steep December-January hikes in regulated tariffs for mains gas, thermal energy and electricity. Headline inflation accelerated to 6.96 percent in December—above the 5 percent ±1.5 pp target band—and is projected to remain above the ceiling for several quarters despite an ex-tariff rate of about 6.25 percent, while GDP contracted 1.9 percent y/y in Q3 2024 amid weaker external demand; cheaper leu-denominated credit has nonetheless driven loan growth of 41.8 percent in mid-December. The halt of gas transit through Ukraine and rising European natural-gas prices, set against subdued euro-area growth and ongoing geopolitical tensions, add to the inflation outlook. The central bank pledged vigilant monitoring and signalled readiness to adjust tools further, with the next policy meeting scheduled for 5 February 2025.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.