- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania on 15 January 2025 kept the policy rate at 6.50 percent, holding the lending (Lombard) and deposit facility rates at 7.50 percent and 5.50 percent respectively and leaving reserve-requirement ratios unchanged, as it confronts a sharper-than-forecast rise in headline inflation to 5.14 percent in December and an unchanged 5.6 percent core rate despite expectations of a gradual disinflation path in the first quarter of 2025. Interbank rates firmed in late November and long-term government bond yields extended their climb through December. Year-on-year CPI averaged 5.6 percent in December, while GDP was flat quarter-on-quarter in Q3 but grew 1.2 percent year on year, with strong household consumption offset by weak investment; credit to the private sector expanded 8.8 percent y/y in November, led by lei housing loans. The trade and current-account deficits’ widening eased in Q3, the leu stayed broadly stable versus the euro but weakened against a stronger USD, and global risk aversion added to fiscal and external concerns. The central bank warns of considerable uncertainties from fiscal and wage policies, energy and food prices, and heightened geopolitical tensions, and it reaffirms its readiness to adjust instruments as needed to secure medium-term price stability while supporting sustainable growth.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.