- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference rate
- 5.75%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council left Narodowy Bank Polski’s reference rate unchanged at 5.75% (deposit 5.25%, lombard 6.25%, rediscount 5.80%, discount 5.85%), judging the current stance adequate as headline CPI held at 4.7% y/y in December and is projected to stay “markedly” above the 2.5 %±1 pp target for several quarters on earlier energy-price hikes, excise increases and higher administered prices, while core inflation remains elevated on strong services and wage growth. Fourth-quarter 2024 GDP growth improved, supported by faster retail sales, but industrial production and construction output contracted and enterprise employment was below year-earlier levels, even as unemployment stayed low and wages rose sharply; producer prices continued to decline. Externally, euro-area activity remained subdued and German growth was near zero, whereas the United States sustained relatively high growth, and a recent rebound in global energy prices has lifted headline inflation in major economies. The central bank reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market and said future policy moves will hinge on incoming data on inflation and economic activity, maintaining that the present rate level should return inflation to target in the medium term.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.