- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 13.5%
The Board of the Central Bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 13.5 percent, judging that a still-tight stance is needed as headline inflation has fallen to 9.8 percent in December but core inflation edged up to 7.2 percent and expectations remain high, while the goal is to steer inflation to the 5 percent medium-term target. Money-market rates and government bond yields signal restrictive monetary conditions that are lifting real rates, encouraging saving and curbing credit expansion. The Bank projects headline inflation at 7–8 percent by end-2025 and sees GDP growth of about 6 percent this year, underpinned by robust consumption, wage gains and rising private investment; lending growth is expected to stay moderate while deposits expand briskly. A brief real effective exchange-rate appreciation late in 2024 reflected partner-currency moves and relatively higher domestic inflation, but the foreign-exchange market is expected to stay balanced thanks to a stronger 2024 current-account position and anticipated external stability. The authorities warn that higher global food prices could lift import costs and pledge to maintain sufficiently tight conditions—and tighten further if demand or price pressures intensify—to secure a durable disinflation path.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.