- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference rate
- 5.75%
The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) of the National Bank of Poland on 5 February 2025 left all policy settings unchanged, maintaining the reference rate at 5.75 percent, the lombard rate at 6.25 percent, the deposit rate at 5.25 percent and the rediscount and discount rates at 5.80 percent and 5.85 percent, respectively, as it judged the existing stance adequate to return inflation to target over the medium term while economic growth remains modest. The decision extends the steady-rate posture adopted at the 16 January meeting. The MPC noted December consumer price inflation of 4.7 percent y/y—well above the target—and expects price pressures to stay elevated in coming quarters due to earlier hikes in energy, excise and administered prices, with core inflation also “probably” remaining high despite negative producer-price growth. Preliminary data show 2024 GDP expanding 2.9 percent with a Q4 acceleration, unemployment staying low and wages still growing sharply even as enterprise employment fell versus a year earlier. Externally, euro-area activity stayed only moderate and Germany’s output slipped, while advanced-economy inflation remains slightly above targets and core services inflation is stronger, amid persistent global trade policy uncertainty. The central bank repeated that it stands ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market and said future moves will depend on incoming information about inflation and growth.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.