- Decision
- Raise
- Rate change
- 90 bps
- base rate
- 6.5%
The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) unanimously raised its base rate on main short-term operations by 90 bp to 6.50 % on 5 February 2025, lifting the overnight lending, repo and overnight deposit rates to 8.50 %, 6.75 % and 4.50 %, respectively, to counter second-round effects from recent energy-tariff hikes, anchor expectations and return inflation to the 5 % ±1.5 pp target band amid heightened global uncertainty. The move follows an unscheduled increase to 5.60 % in January. December headline inflation quickened to 6.97 %, pushing Q4 2024 average inflation up to 5.9 %, while GDP shrank 1.9 % y/y in Q3 and early Q4 data point to another contraction as exports fell 7.6 % and industrial output dropped 6.1 %. Domestic credit growth remains strong on the back of lower lending rates, yet the recent appreciation of the USD and sharply higher global gas, oil and food prices are intensifying external cost pressures. The central bank will update its medium-term inflation forecast—factoring in the EU’s new energy-support package—and stands ready to adjust policy further to secure a timely return of inflation to target.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.