- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- central bank rate
- 6.5%
The National Bank of Rwanda’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 6.5 percent at its 12 February 2025 meeting, judging the existing stance sufficient to anchor headline inflation, which stayed within the 2–8 percent target at 5.2 percent in 2024 Q4 and is forecast to average 6.5 percent in 2025 before easing to 4.1 percent in 2026 amid lingering risks from geopolitical tensions and irregular rainfall. Money-market conditions remain accommodative: the interbank rate slipped to an average 6.78 percent in 2024 Q4, following the cumulative 100 bp CBR cuts delivered in May and August 2024 and supported by ample banking-system liquidity. Real GDP grew 9.2 percent year on year in the first three quarters of 2024, with the Composite Index of Economic Activity up 15.7 percent in Q4, suggesting growth will surpass the 8.3 percent full-year projection. Strong commodity prices and regional demand lifted merchandise exports 15.8 percent while imports rose 3.3 percent, narrowing the trade deficit by 3.7 percent; the Rwandan franc depreciated 9.42 percent against the USD in 2024—less than the 18.05 percent fall in 2023—and reserves covered 5.4 months of imports. The committee will keep monitoring conditions and stands ready to act to preserve price stability.
Rate evolution
From August to November 2025, the National Bank of Rwanda raised the Central Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent and then held it there. The August increase was framed as a pre-emptive step to keep inflation within the 2 to 8 percent target range after forecasts were revised up, even though headline inflation had stabilised at 6.7 percent in the second quarter, with the Bank citing seasonal weakness in agricultural output, administered price adjustments and fiscal measures, alongside adverse weather, international commodity and trade uncertainty, and supply chain pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. The decision also came against a backdrop of resilient domestic growth, strong services and industry activity, improved external trade dynamics and reduced foreign-exchange pressures.
In November, the Monetary Policy Committee kept the rate at 6.75 percent as headline inflation rose to 7.2 percent in the third quarter on higher core and energy inflation, but judged the stance adequate because inflation was projected to remain within target, while warning that weather shocks and geopolitical tensions could lift imported prices.
By August 26, 2026, the rate stood at 8.25 percent, and the Committee raised it by 50 basis points to 8.75 percent after inflation increased from 9.1 percent in the first quarter to 13.2 percent in the second quarter and 14.5 percent in July. Although inflation was projected to average 13.1 percent in 2026, slightly below the previous forecast of 13.9 percent, the Bank cited risks from El Niño and continued Middle East tensions and said the increase would anchor inflation expectations, limit second-round effects and support inflation’s return to the target range in the second half of 2027.