- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 5.75%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) left the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75 % on 13 March, and maintained the deposit and lending facility rates at 4.5 % and 7.0 %, respectively, judging that still-tight monetary conditions are needed despite the marked fall and recent stabilisation of inflation amid persistent geopolitical, trade and commodity-price uncertainties. After three 25 bp cuts between June and September 2024 the rate has remained at 5.75 %. The NBS noted inflation has hovered near the 3 ± 1.5 pp target band’s upper bound since January, lifted by costlier petroleum products, certain foods and utilities, but projects a gradual slowdown from Q2 and a return to the midpoint by year-end on lower imported inflation, softer wage growth and expected declines in fuel and produce prices. Gross domestic product expanded 3.9 % in 2024 and the bank forecasts about 4.5 % growth in 2025, led by household spending and investment supported by FDI, government capital spending and easier financial conditions, though it cautioned that rising global protectionism and protests could weigh on activity, as FDI inflows have already moderated early in the year. The central bank will continue data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decisions with an eye on preserving financial stability and supporting growth, and next convenes on 10 April 2025.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through September 2026, the National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending a pause with no net change. The hold reflected actual and expected inflation and uncertainty, which eased in early autumn before worsening again, with mid-2025 decisions balancing weather- and drought-driven food inflation and an oil-price rise from Middle East tensions against softer domestic activity, while later decisions judged that the Government’s margin-capping decree, lower imported cost pressures, exchange-rate stability and earlier easing would contain inflation as lending and Serbia Expo 2027-related investment supported growth.
On 10 September 2026, the Executive Board again held the rate at 5.75%, citing actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment. Year-on-year inflation remained within the 3±1.5% target band and stood at 1.9% in July, mainly because an exceptionally good harvest lowered fruit and vegetable prices, while significant second-round effects had not materialised and the economy proved more resilient than expected to the energy shock. The August projection envisaged inflation remaining within the target band over the next two years, moving around 4% from September 2026 and during 2027 before gradually declining, while core inflation stood at 4.5% in July.
Economic activity also exceeded expectations, with real gross domestic product growth accelerating to 3.8% year on year in the second quarter and prompting the National Bank of Serbia to raise its 2026 growth projection to 3.2%, while the Executive Board maintained a cautious stance as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and oil prices remained elevated and reiterated that it would use all available instruments if stronger second-round effects lifted other prices through inflation expectations.