- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania on 14 February 2025 left the monetary-policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, judging that, despite January’s dip in headline CPI to 4.95% from December’s 5.14%, inflation is set to remain above the target band for most of 2025 amid lingering pressures from fuel and food prices, elevated wage costs and still-robust domestic demand, while uncertainties around fiscal consolidation, labour-market conditions and global commodity prices persist. The key rate has been steady at 6.50% since the January 2025 meeting. The overnight lending and deposit facility rates were kept at 7.50% and 5.50% respectively, and required-reserve ratios were left unchanged. Q4 GDP growth accelerated to 0.8% q/q but slowed to 0.7% y/y, with mixed signals across demand components; private-sector credit growth edged up to 8.9% y/y in December, though the share of leu-denominated loans slipped to 70.1%. The leu remained broadly stable against the EUR in January, while the current-account gap widened on deteriorating income balances. Policymakers highlighted global energy and food prices, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, and major-central-bank actions as key external risk factors. The Board reaffirmed its readiness to adjust tools as needed and projects inflation to fall just below the upper bound of the target in early 2026 before flattening marginally lower thereafter.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.