- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference rate
- 5.75%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council kept the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate at 5.75 percent on 12 March 2025—along with the 5.25 percent deposit rate and 6.25 percent lombard rate—arguing the prevailing stance supports a return of inflation to target despite January’s rise in consumer prices to 5.3 percent year on year, driven chiefly by higher administered energy charges and still-elevated services inflation amid strong wage growth and firming domestic demand. The reference rate has now been held at 5.75 percent at every meeting since January 2025. The policy corridor remains 50 bp wide on either side of the reference rate, and the central bank reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market if needed. GDP growth accelerated to 3.2 percent y/y in 2024 Q4 on a 4.8 percent jump in domestic demand, while January data showed robust retail sales and construction but contracting industrial output; unemployment stayed low. Globally, major advanced economies face still-elevated core inflation and uncertain activity prospects linked to shifting trade policies. The Council said its next moves will be data-dependent and reaffirmed that the current rate level is consistent with bringing inflation back to the target over the medium term while maintaining macro-financial stability.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.