- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- base rate
- 6.5%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova on 20 March 2025 kept the base rate on main short-term operations unchanged at 6.50 %, alongside steady overnight loan, repo and deposit rates at 8.50 %, 6.75 % and 4.50 % respectively, and maintained reserve requirement ratios at 22 % for local-currency and 31 % for FX liabilities, judging earlier tightening sufficient as inflation decelerates and aggregate demand remains below potential. After a 90 bp hike in February that lifted the base rate to its current level, policy settings were left on hold. Annual consumer price inflation eased to 8.6 % in February from January’s 9.1 %, still above the 5 % ±1.5 pp target band, and the bank projects a continued downward path through year-end amid weak domestic demand and moderated inflation expectations; GDP contracted 1.3 % y/y in Q4 2024, leaving full-year 2024 growth at just 0.1 %, while loan and deposit rates edged higher in early March but credit and deposit volumes kept expanding. Externally, lower oil and European gas prices contrast with rising global food quotations, and heightened trade and geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. The central bank sees a broadly balanced inflation risk profile with a slight near-term upside tilt and pledges vigilant monitoring and timely policy adjustments to return inflation to target.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.