- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- two-week repo rate
- 3.75%
The Bank Board of the Czech National Bank left the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.75 percent, judging that a mildly restrictive stance is still needed as its revised forecast shows inflation staying slightly above the 2 percent target through 2025 before easing in 2026 amid persistent services-price and wage pressures and rising tariff risks. After lowering the rate by 25 bp in February following a steady decline from 7 percent in late 2023, policymakers unanimously opted to pause. GDP expanded 1.8 percent year on year in 2024 Q4 on stronger household consumption, but external demand remained soft and market-sector wages jumped 8.3 percent. The board cited escalating US–EU trade tensions and Germany’s planned fiscal stimulus as additional upside risks and said future decisions will hinge on incoming data, koruna movements, fiscal policy, labour-market tightness, external demand and the stance of major central banks, reiterating its commitment to keep policy tight enough to secure lasting price stability.
Rate evolution
The Czech National Bank lowered the two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, held it in December and again in March and May 2026, raised it by 25 basis points to 3.75% on 18 June, and kept it unchanged on 6 August and 17 September, when all seven members backed the hold. It said easing room was limited because domestic inflation pressures persisted even with inflation near or within the tolerance band around the 2% target, citing elevated core and services inflation, strong wage growth, a tight labour market, firmer household consumption, rising property prices and strengthening credit and money growth, while weak external demand, trade barriers and geopolitics clouded activity. Across the December, March and May holds, the Bank Board continued to describe policy as relatively tight, while its risk assessment moved from modestly inflationary overall to inflationary overall and then balanced overall as domestic upside risks were increasingly offset by a stronger koruna, weak euro area activity and the risk of a global asset-price correction.
In June, the Bank Board returned the risk assessment to inflationary overall and said the increase would help lower core inflation and maintain a low-inflation environment, while on 6 August it judged that the move had delivered the desired tightening of monetary conditions and shifted to assessing incoming data, the outlook, inflationary risks and the effects of policy restriction as core inflation remained just below 3% without a significant downward tendency for eight months. On 17 September, it said the June increase had so far sufficiently tightened monetary conditions and that higher longer-term interest rates had also tightened financial conditions, although core inflation remained elevated and the upside risk from commodity market developments had intensified. The Bank Board again assessed risks as inflationary overall, citing persistent core and services inflation, credit growth and debt-financed public spending, rapid wage growth, a tight labour market and property prices, while weak euro area activity and a possible global asset-price correction could have an anti-inflationary effect, and said continued tight monetary policy was needed, with its next decision to be between holding the policy rate and raising it.