- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference rate
- 5.75%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council kept the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate at 5.75% and left the lombard, deposit, rediscount and discount rates at 6.25%, 5.25%, 5.80% and 5.85% respectively, arguing that the current stance best supports the medium-term return of inflation to target amid softer domestic growth and easing price pressures. The reference rate has been steady at 5.75% in each meeting since January. Annual CPI inflation eased to 4.9 % in Q1, below earlier forecasts but still above the 2.5 % ±1 pp target, with elevated readings tied mainly to past energy-price hikes and dearer food, while core inflation has moderated; unemployment remains low, and high wage growth is showing signs of slowing as Q1 GDP growth likely matched the subdued Q4 pace, with February retail sales and industrial output contracting. The council highlighted that euro-area growth remained tepid and headline inflation is near the ECB’s target even as core prices stay high, while US momentum has softened, and global prospects are clouded by trade-policy uncertainty. It reaffirmed readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market and said future decisions will depend on new data for inflation and activity.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.