- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania on 7 April 2025 left the monetary-policy rate unchanged at 6.50 %, judging that headline inflation, which slipped to 4.95 % in January before edging up to 5.02 % in February, is easing more slowly than expected as lower food and fuel prices are partly offset by stronger energy and administered tariffs, while core inflation fell to 5.0 %. The key rate has been steady at 6.50 % since at least January 2025. The lending (Lombard) and deposit facility rates were maintained at 7.50 % and 5.50 % respectively, required-reserve ratios were kept unchanged, and interbank money-market rates have remained broadly stable. Quarterly GDP growth accelerated to 0.8 % in Q4 2024, but the bank sees a marked slowdown in Q1 2025; annual GDP growth eased to 0.7 %, consumption stayed robust, investment contracted and net exports weighed, while private-sector credit growth quickened to 9.4 % y/y in February. The trade gap widened sharply in January and the current-account deficit accelerated, although large EU fund inflows tempered the deterioration; the leu has held at a higher EUR/RON range and strengthened against the USD. Policymakers cite elevated external risks from geopolitical tensions and protectionist trade measures, as well as domestic fiscal and wage uncertainties, and signal vigilance and readiness to act while expecting inflation to fluctuate in H1 before a moderate pick-up in Q2.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.