- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 15.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine kept the key policy rate at 15.5 % on 17 April, judging the existing stance adequate to sustain foreign-exchange stability, contain inflation expectations and steer inflation back to the 5 % target despite rising uncertainty. After two consecutive 100 bp increases in January and March that lifted the rate to the current level, the operational framework was left unchanged; earlier tightening has already pushed up yields on hryvnia government bonds and term deposits, boosted household demand for local-currency savings and reduced FX interventions. Annual consumer inflation reached 14.6 % in March, but seasonally adjusted monthly data point to easing pressures, and the central bank projects a decline to 8.7 % by end-2025 and to 5 % in 2026 as larger harvests, improved electricity supply, softer labour-cost pressures and lower global oil prices take hold. GDP growth remained subdued in Q1, and the 2025 expansion forecast has been trimmed to 3.1 % amid war-related damage and labour shortages, before picking up to 3.7–3.9 % in 2026–27; credit demand is strengthening, with the strongest net demand for term deposits and government securities in 10 months. Substantial international support, including faster ERA Loans, is set to raise reserves to USD 58 bn this year and offset future declines in external financing, underpinning the hryvnia. The bank highlighted the full-scale war, escalating global trade frictions and potential funding shortfalls as key risks, and signalled it expects to keep the policy rate unchanged for “the coming months”, with scope to cut once the inflation peak passes but readiness to maintain or raise rates if price risks intensify.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15.5% through 2025, cut it by 50 basis points to 15% in January 2026, paused, and subsequently raised it in two 50-basis-point steps to 16%. Through most of 2025, it kept a tight stance to support FX market sustainability and keep inflation expectations in check as inflation, peaking in May and then slowing, remained above forecast at times and underlying pressures from wages, labor shortages, energy costs, demand and war-related disruption persisted. Late in 2025, the risk balance turned more hawkish, with greater emphasis on energy shortages, larger budgetary needs and uncertainty over external assistance, even as harvests and official financing supported disinflation and reserves.
After the January cut, the NBU held at 15% as inflation rose on energy and fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East, hryvnia weakness and faster wage growth, before raising it to 15.5% as persistent pressures from logistics, wage and energy costs continued despite increased raw food supply. Most recently, it raised the key policy rate to 16% in view of persistent underlying price pressures, second-round effects from supply shocks and higher medium-term inflation risks, after consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year on year in August, primarily on a greater-than-expected rise in fuel prices amid escalation in the Middle East and faster increases in administered tariffs due largely to Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure. The increase aims to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, maintain FX market sustainability, keep inflation expectations in check and return inflation toward the 5% target, while the NBU said it stood ready to tighten further if risks intensified or consider easing if the security situation noticeably weakened consumer demand and the labor market.