- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 14%
The Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan on 24 April 2025 left the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent per annum, arguing that stubbornly high inflation—headline 10.3 percent y/y and core 8.1 percent in March—together with persistent demand-supply imbalances and greater external uncertainty require the retention of “relatively tight” monetary conditions to guide inflation toward the 5 percent medium-term target. The pause follows a 50 bp increase in March that took the rate to its current level from 13.5 percent. No new operational measures were announced; the authority said keeping the stance tight should curb credit expansion and sustain strong deposit growth. Economic activity remains robust, with GDP growth accelerating to 6.8 percent in Q1 and projected at about 6 percent for 2025, supported by consumption, investment and buoyant remittances. The real effective exchange rate has stayed near its medium-term trend amid partner-currency appreciation and a stable soum. Policymakers flagged downside terms-of-trade shifts and higher global consumer prices as external inflation risks. The Board pledged to maintain sufficiently restrictive conditions and signalled it may adjust the stance after the May phase of energy-price liberalisation, with the next policy review set for 12 June 2025.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.