- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 50 bps
- reference rate
- 5.25%
The Monetary Policy Council of Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) cut the NBP reference rate by 50 bp to 5.25 percent at its 6–7 May meeting, saying softer current and projected inflation, slowing wage growth and weaker activity data warranted an easing of policy. After leaving the benchmark unchanged at 5.75 percent in the four meetings since January, the Council also reduced the lombard, deposit, rediscount and discount rates to 5.75 percent, 4.75 percent, 5.30 percent and 5.35 percent respectively and reiterated that it may intervene in the foreign-exchange market to preserve stability. April CPI inflation fell to 4.2 percent y/y from 4.9 percent in March, with core inflation also easing, yet earlier hikes in administered energy prices and persistent services price growth keep headline inflation above target; Q1 GDP growth appears below expectations, retail sales and construction output contracted in March, industrial output edged up, unemployment remains low and enterprise wage growth is decelerating. The Council noted euro-area GDP growth of 1.2 percent y/y and a slowdown in US growth to 2.0 percent, with inflation in both economies near their central bank targets amid global uncertainty linked to shifting trade policies and lower oil prices. Policymakers said subsequent decisions will depend on incoming data, citing demand pressure, labour-market conditions, energy tariffs, fiscal measures and external inflation as key sources of uncertainty.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.