- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 2.25%
The Executive Board of the Sveriges Riksbank on 8 May 2025 kept the policy rate at 2.25 %, saying policy is “well-balanced” while heightened global trade uncertainty and softer international growth prospects have slightly weakened Sweden’s outlook and made the inflation impact difficult to judge. After cumulative easing of 175 bp between May 2024 and January 2025 and an unchanged decision in March, the rate remains at its post-cut low. The unchanged 2.25 % rate, to apply from 14 May, maintains the existing corridor for the Riksbank’s deposits, credits and repos. April CPIF inflation was 2.3 % (3.1 % excluding energy); although currently “slightly elevated”, the central bank still views this rise as temporary, with weaker domestic demand—evidenced by a marked fall in household confidence and early signs of corporate pessimism—expected to damp future price pressures. Externally, the new US trade policy has lifted tariffs, roiled financial markets and curtailed growth prospects in both the United States and Europe, adding supply-chain and protectionist risks. The Board sees it as “somewhat more probable” that inflation will fall below its March projection and signals that these risks could warrant a “slight easing” of policy if forthcoming data confirm a softer outlook.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Riksbank lowered the policy rate from 2 per cent to 1.75 per cent, cutting in June and September 2025 and then holding it unchanged. The June cut reflected a recovery that had lost momentum, a softer inflation outlook, weak growth and high unemployment, while an August pause treated above-target inflation as temporary despite weak activity, and the September cut followed signs of easing inflation pressures even as the recovery and labour-market improvement remained delayed.
During subsequent holds through June 2026, the Riksbank said inflation had moved close to target and then below forecast while activity improved only tentatively, but uncertainty widened from trade policy and domestic demand to the war in the Middle East, energy and commodity prices, the krona and fiscal policy. On 17 June, it judged that underlying inflation was low and activity somewhat weaker than normal, but raised its policy-rate forecast somewhat and flagged a greater probability of an increase later in 2026 as war-related supply disruptions lifted inflationary pressures.
On 20 August, the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, noting that growth and inflation had exceeded its June forecast but that subdued company pricing plans, fewer global supply-chain disruptions and weaker-than-expected labour-market developments left the overall outlook largely unchanged. On 24 September, it again held the rate at 1.75 per cent, but said stronger, broad-based activity and continued supply shocks meant the policy rate should rise more than projected in June, with increases expected to begin in 2026 if the outlook remained unchanged, as inflation pressures remained above normal despite measures of underlying inflation being relatively close to 2 per cent.