- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- base rate
- 6.5%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova on 12 May 2025 unanimously left the base rate on main short-term operations at 6.50 %, with the overnight lending, repo and overnight deposit rates unchanged at 8.50 %, 6.75 % and 4.50 %, respectively, and kept required-reserve ratios at 22 % for leu and non-convertible deposits and 31 % for FX funds, citing moderating price pressures and the ongoing transmission of earlier tightening aimed at returning inflation to the 5 % ±1.5 pp target range. After a 90 bp hike in February that lifted the policy rate to its current level from 5.60 %, the stance has been on hold. The bank noted that annual inflation edged up to 8.8 % in March but is projected to trend lower through end-2025 as below-potential domestic demand and weaker global demand exert disinflationary forces, partly offsetting supply shocks from higher regulated tariffs and drought-hit agriculture; average inflation in Q1 was 8.8 %, marginally above the February forecast. Monetary tightening has pushed average Q1 lending and deposit rates to 8.47 % and 4.14 %, respectively, and credit growth has begun to moderate. Exports fell 14.8 % y/y while imports rose 16.0 % in January–February, reflecting drought-related declines in agri-food shipments and stronger domestic consumption aided by higher electricity imports. The central bank also highlighted heightened global economic and political uncertainties, slower IMF-projected world growth of 2.8 % in 2025 and subdued international energy prices. It reaffirmed a neutral risk balance with a disinflationary tilt and said it will continue to monitor conditions and adjust tools as needed, with the next policy meeting scheduled for 19 June 2025.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.