- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) on 16 May 2025 left the key policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, retained the standing-facility corridor at 5.50% (deposit) and 7.50% (Lombard) and kept reserve-requirement ratios steady, judging that a still-high though easing inflation rate and a stalling economy call for continued caution amid exceptional uncertainty. The rate has been unchanged at 6.50% since January 2025. The NBR affirmed the existing liquidity-management set-up even as election-related political tensions have recently driven up interbank rates and short-term bond yields and pushed the leu lower against both the EUR and the USD. Headline CPI slowed to 4.86% y/y in March and held at 4.85% in April, while adjusted CORE2 inflation fell to 5.2%, with both measures on a higher-than-forecast path; the May Inflation Report foresees volatile readings through Q3 due to base effects and the expiry of electricity price caps before a gradual decline that only dips marginally below the upper bound of the target range in Q1 2026. Preliminary data show GDP stagnated in Q1 and annual growth decelerated to 0.2% from 0.5% in Q4 2024, as retail sales cooled, industry contracted and trade and current-account deficits widened, though employment rose and joblessness fell. Private-sector credit growth eased to 9.2% y/y in March, with the share of leu-denominated loans inching up to 70%. The board underscored elevated risks from energy and food prices, uncertain fiscal and income policies, geopolitical conflicts and global trade measures, and reiterated its readiness to act as needed to safeguard medium-term price and financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.