- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference rate
- 5.25%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council left the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate at 5.25 percent at its 3–4 June meeting, saying the existing stance remains consistent with bringing consumer price inflation back to the NBP’s medium-term target as price pressures ease and domestic demand stays supportive of growth. After a 50 bp rate cut in May, all other policy rates were also held, keeping the interest-rate corridor at 4.75–5.75 percent for deposit and lombard facilities respectively. Preliminary data show GDP expanding 3.2 percent y/y in 2025 Q1, slightly below 3.4 percent in 2024 Q4, with consumption and investment driving output; April retail sales and industrial production rose, unemployment stayed low and wage growth in the enterprise sector rebounded after a first-quarter slowdown. Headline CPI slipped to 4.1 percent y/y in May from 4.3 percent in April, helped by lower fuel prices, while core inflation edged down but services inflation remained high amid earlier energy-price hikes and still-strong food price growth. Abroad, euro-area growth held at 1.2 percent y/y in Q1 and US growth cooled to 2.1 percent, with inflation in both economies near their central-bank targets, though global activity and price prospects are clouded by trade policy uncertainty. The Council reiterated that future moves will hinge on incoming data on inflation, demand pressures, labour-market conditions, energy tariffs and fiscal policy, and it stands ready to act, including via foreign-exchange intervention, to safeguard macro-financial stability.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.