- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference interest rate
- 4.5%
The Board of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.50 percent at the 12 June 2025 monetary programme meeting, judging that year-ahead inflation expectations remain anchored at 2.3 percent and headline inflation held at 1.7 percent y/y in May—near the midpoint of the 1–3 percent target range—even as global trade tensions risk slowing the pace of disinflation. After 25 bp reductions in January and May that lowered the benchmark to the current level, the BCRP maintained the overnight deposit rate at 2.50 percent and kept direct repos and monetary regulation credits at 5.00 percent for the first ten operations in the past three months, with higher rates possible on additional transactions. The bank projects annual inflation to stay at the lower end of the target in coming months before moving back toward the midpoint, while core inflation should hover around 2 percent; economic activity is described as near potential despite a slight deterioration in business sentiment in May. Externally, the Board highlighted a weaker global growth outlook and persistent financial-market volatility stemming from restrictive trade measures. The BCRP reiterated it will remain vigilant and stands ready to adjust policy as needed to ensure inflation stays within the target band, with the next policy assessment set for 10 July 2025.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru held the reference rate at 4.50% in July 2025, lowered it by 25 basis points to 4.25% in September 2025 after several months on hold, and kept it unchanged through September 2026. The early pause reflected headline inflation and inflation without food and energy of 1.7% in June 2025, one-year-ahead inflation expectations of 2.3% within the target range, and activity around potential, while the September cut followed a temporary fall in headline inflation and the Board’s assessment that the rate was close to neutral.
At its June 11, 2026 meeting, the Board held the reference rate at 4.25%, noting that annual headline inflation eased to 3.9% in May, and on July 9 it again left the rate unchanged as headline inflation rose to 4.0% in June and inflation without food and energy to 4.5%, while expectations fell to 2.8% and activity indicators continued to perform well. In August, the Board maintained the rate as annual headline inflation increased to 4.1% in July, inflation without food and energy reached 4.6%, and 12-month inflation expectations rose to 3.0%, the upper limit of the target range. On September 10, it again held the rate at 4.25% as annual headline inflation rose to 4.4% in August, mainly because of a base effect, while inflation without food and energy declined to 4.5% and 12-month expectations increased to 3.1%, slightly above the target range. The Board projected both inflation measures would return to the target range and settle around 2% as supply-shock effects dissipated, but flagged risks from a more persistent El Niño and Middle East tensions and said it remained attentive to inflation, expectations, activity and the duration of supply shocks.