- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 14%
The Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan on 12 June 2025 left the policy rate at 14.0 percent, judging existing monetary restrictiveness appropriate to counter strong domestic demand and still-elevated inflationary pressures, including second-round effects from earlier energy-price increases, and to guide headline inflation toward the 5 percent medium-term target. After a 50 bp hike to 14 percent in March, the rate has been unchanged at the April and June meetings. The central bank said a tight stance will curb rapid credit expansion and sustain high deposit growth. Headline inflation eased to 8.7 percent y/y in May as last year’s energy-tariff impact faded, yet it remains above the forecast path; core inflation accelerated to 8.5 percent and household and business expectations stay higher than actual inflation amid vigorous activity reflected in buoyant trade and services revenues, remittances, credit and fiscal spending. High global prices for key exports and partner-currency appreciation are supporting FX inflows and exchange-rate stability, which should temper imported price pressures, though global economic uncertainties and rising world food prices pose upside risks. The central bank pledged to keep monetary conditions “sufficiently tight” and signalled readiness to tighten further if demand or price shocks intensify; the policy rate will next be reviewed on 24 July 2025.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.