- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- base rate
- 6.5%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova on 19 June 2025 unanimously kept the base rate for main short-term operations at 6.50 % per annum, saying moderating inflation, below-potential aggregate demand and the ongoing pass-through of earlier tightening support its aim of re-anchoring expectations and returning inflation to the 5 % target ±1.5 pp over the medium term. After a 90 bp increase to 6.50 % in February, the rate has been unchanged at the March, May and June meetings. Operational settings were left intact—overnight loan, repo and overnight deposit rates stay at 8.50 %, 6.75 % and 4.50 % respectively, while reserve requirements remain 22 % on leu and non-convertible FX funds and 31 % on freely convertible FX funds. Annual inflation edged up to 7.9 % in May from 7.8 % in April but is forecast to keep declining through year-end; GDP contracted 1.2 % y/y in Q1, with weak net external demand partly offset by firmer household consumption and investment, and bank data show loan rates climbing to 9.17 % in early June as deposit rates eased to 4.14 %. Exports fell 11.3 % while imports rose 16.2 % in January–April, and the wage fund grew 12.1 % in Q1. Externally, lingering trade tensions and Russia’s war against Ukraine have led the World Bank to cut 2025–26 global growth forecasts and have pushed up oil and European natural-gas prices alongside a marginal uptick in international food prices. The Board judges the balance of risks to inflation as neutral with a disinflationary tilt and notes “a reasonable probability” that the current tightening cycle could soon end; it will continue monitoring conditions and stands ready to adjust tools as needed, with the next policy meeting scheduled for 7 August 2025.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.