- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- reference rate
- 5%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council cut the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reference rate by 25 bp to 5.00 percent, citing forecasts that consumer price inflation will dip below the upper bound of the NBP’s 2.5 ± 1 pp target as wage growth eases and domestic activity moderates. After a 50 bp reduction in May and an unchanged decision in June, the benchmark is now 75 bp lower than its April level. The lombard, deposit, rediscount and discount rates were set at 5.50 percent, 4.50 percent, 5.05 percent and 5.10 percent respectively. Flash data show headline CPI at 4.1 percent y/y in June (4.0 percent in May) with core inflation broadly steady, while the new NECMOD projection—assuming unchanged rates—places inflation at 3.5–4.4 percent in 2025 and GDP growth at 2.9–4.3 percent. May retail sales and industrial output registered positive annual growth, but construction output fell and enterprise employment remained below year-earlier levels as wage gains continued to slow. Euro-area and US growth hovered near long-term trends in Q1 and inflation there is near target, though global activity and price prospects are clouded by trade-policy uncertainty. The Council reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market and stressed that future policy moves will hinge on incoming data, with fiscal policy, domestic demand pressures, labour-market conditions and regulated energy prices among key risk factors.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.