- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) on 8 July 2025 kept the policy rate at 6.50 percent, judging that a temporary jump in inflation from the August expiry of the electricity-price cap and higher VAT/ excises will be followed by demand- and external-deficit-dampening effects from the forthcoming fiscal-consolidation package. The rate has remained at 6.50 percent in every meeting since at least January 2025. The standing-facility corridor was left at 5.50 percent (deposit) to 7.50 percent (Lombard), and reserve-requirement ratios were unchanged. Headline CPI accelerated to 5.45 percent y/y in May from 4.85 percent in April as food and energy costs picked up, while adjusted CORE2 inflation edged up to 5.4 percent; the Bank expects headline inflation to rise “considerably” in the near term, well above its May forecast. Output was flat in Q1 and only 0.3 percent higher on the year, with indicators signalling modest Q2 growth amid weaker retail sales and a sharp industrial contraction; private-sector credit growth nonetheless quickened to 9.7 percent y/y in May. Net exports deepened their drag, widening trade and current-account deficits, although leu exchange-rate pressures have eased and long-term government bond yields have retraced May’s spikes as domestic political risks abated. Geopolitical tensions and global trade policy uncertainty remain key external risks, and the BNR reiterated it will adjust policy as needed to safeguard medium-term price and financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.