- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 15.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept the key policy rate at 15.5 percent on 24 July, saying a “rather tight” stance is still required to safeguard foreign-exchange stability and tame inflation, which slipped to 14.3 percent y/y in June after a May peak, with core inflation at 12.1 percent; the bank now sees headline inflation easing to 9.7 percent in 2025, 6.6 percent in 2026 and reaching the 5 percent target in 2027. After raising the rate by 100 bp to 14.5 percent in January and by another 100 bp to 15.5 percent in March, the NBU has held it steady through April and June. No new operational-framework changes were announced, and the revised forecast already assumes the current rate will stay in place until Q4 2025 before a slower easing cycle begins. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.1 percent in 2025 and 2–3 percent in 2026-27, supported by international financing and a 30 percent y/y surge in net hryvnia business lending. The exchange market remains orderly, helped by earlier tightening and expected external support of about USD 54 bn this year, with reserves forecast around USD 45 bn in 2026-27. The NBU cited war-related uncertainty, potential shortfalls in foreign aid and adverse weather as key domestic risks, while warning that heightened geopolitical and global market volatility could complicate disinflation. It pledged to keep policy tight until convincing evidence emerges of a durable move toward target, with the next rate decision due on 11 September 2025.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15.5% through 2025, cut it by 50 basis points to 15% in January 2026, paused, and subsequently raised it in two 50-basis-point steps to 16%. Through most of 2025, it kept a tight stance to support FX market sustainability and keep inflation expectations in check as inflation, peaking in May and then slowing, remained above forecast at times and underlying pressures from wages, labor shortages, energy costs, demand and war-related disruption persisted. Late in 2025, the risk balance turned more hawkish, with greater emphasis on energy shortages, larger budgetary needs and uncertainty over external assistance, even as harvests and official financing supported disinflation and reserves.
After the January cut, the NBU held at 15% as inflation rose on energy and fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East, hryvnia weakness and faster wage growth, before raising it to 15.5% as persistent pressures from logistics, wage and energy costs continued despite increased raw food supply. Most recently, it raised the key policy rate to 16% in view of persistent underlying price pressures, second-round effects from supply shocks and higher medium-term inflation risks, after consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year on year in August, primarily on a greater-than-expected rise in fuel prices amid escalation in the Middle East and faster increases in administered tariffs due largely to Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure. The increase aims to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, maintain FX market sustainability, keep inflation expectations in check and return inflation toward the 5% target, while the NBU said it stood ready to tighten further if risks intensified or consider easing if the security situation noticeably weakened consumer demand and the labor market.