- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy repo rate
- 5.5%
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India left the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.50 per cent at its 4–6 August 2025 meeting, retaining the standing deposit facility at 5.25 per cent and the marginal standing facility and Bank Rate at 5.75 per cent, judging that sharply softer headline inflation alongside resilient growth justifies pausing to allow earlier easing to work through the economy. Following 100 bp of cumulative rate cuts since February, including 25 bp in April and 50 bp in June, the MPC maintained a neutral stance. Liquidity conditions under the liquidity adjustment facility were left unaltered. Headline CPI inflation dropped for an eighth month to a 77-month low of 2.1 per cent y/y in June, while core inflation edged up to 4.4 per cent; inflation is now projected at 3.1 per cent for 2025-26, rising to 4.4 per cent in the March 2026 quarter, with risks evenly balanced. Real GDP growth is forecast at 6.5 per cent in 2025-26, supported by firm private consumption, robust government capex and a favourable monsoon, though industrial activity remains patchy. The committee flagged uncertain external demand amid ongoing tariff disputes and a slowing global disinflation trend, and it will keep a close watch on evolving growth-inflation dynamics to guide future policy moves.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to August 2026, the Reserve Bank of India lowered the policy repo rate by 75 basis points from 6.00 per cent to 5.25 per cent, front-loading a 50 basis point cut in June, pausing through October, easing again in December and then holding from February through August. The June move reflected sharply softer CPI inflation, a revised-down inflation outlook seen durably aligned with the 4 per cent target and likely to undershoot it marginally, alongside growth that remained below aspirations in a challenging global environment, after which the Monetary Policy Committee shifted the stance to neutral, citing limited remaining space and the need to assess incoming data. The subsequent pause came even as headline inflation turned more benign on food-price disinflation, Goods and Services Tax rate rationalisation and favourable monsoon conditions, because core inflation stayed around 4 per cent, base effects were expected to lift headline inflation later in 2025-26, and the committee wanted more clarity on the transmission of earlier rate cuts and fiscal measures as tariff, trade and geopolitical uncertainties clouded the external outlook.
The Reserve Bank of India cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points in December as exceptionally benign food prices and subdued underlying inflation gave room to support growth, but held it at 5.25 per cent in February, judging the level appropriate amid resilient domestic growth and an inflation outlook still near target, while flagging external headwinds and commodity-price, weather and geopolitical risks. In April, the committee left the policy repo rate unchanged and maintained the neutral stance as contained headline inflation and muted core pressures were offset by rising energy, weather, supply-chain and second-round inflation risks from the West Asia conflict, and it held again in June as the conflict continued, domestic demand remained resilient and higher fuel and input costs, a sub-normal south-west monsoon forecast and El Niño risks warranted greater clarity. At its August 3 to 5 meeting, the committee unanimously kept the policy repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retained the neutral stance, noting that headline CPI inflation had moved above target mainly because of food and fuel without becoming broad-based, while core inflation excluding precious metals remained benign and growth stayed resilient, but uncertainty over the south-west monsoon, El Niño, geopolitics and global trade policy required more clarity on inflation’s path and composition before any policy action.