- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) on 8 August 2025 kept the policy rate at 6.50% for the sixth consecutive meeting, judging that a steady stance best balances a recent up-drift in inflation with still-soft activity. (The key rate has been unchanged at 6.50% since at least January 2025, with the credit (Lombard) and deposit facilities maintained at 7.50% and 5.50%, respectively.) The interest-rate corridor and reserve-requirement ratios were left intact, and money-market rates have continued to decline as financial-market conditions “normalise” following July’s fiscal package. Headline CPI edged up to 5.66 % y/y in June from 5.45 % in May, while core inflation rose to 5.7 %, both exceeding prior projections; the August Inflation Report now foresees a temporary surge in Q3 after the 1 August VAT and excise hikes and the expiry of electricity price caps, followed by only a gradual, fluctuating disinflation path before a sharp correction in Q3 2026 that should return inflation inside the target band towards the end of the horizon. GDP stagnated in Q1 and grew only modestly in Q2 amid weakening household consumption, uneven sectoral dynamics and still-wide external deficits, though trade and current-account gaps narrowed in April–May. Private-sector credit growth slowed to 9.1 % y/y in June, with the RON share easing to 69.7%. The leu stabilised against the EUR in July but weakened against a stronger USD, while long-term government bond yields continued to fall. The Board flagged significant fiscal, geopolitical and global trade uncertainties and reaffirmed its readiness to adjust tools as needed to safeguard medium-term price and financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.