- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 2%
Sveriges Riksbank (Riksbank) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.00 % from 27 August 2025, arguing that a recent, slightly above-target rise in inflation reflects temporary factors while economic activity remains weak. Following 25 bp cuts in January and June, the rate is 50 bp lower than at end-2024. The decision entails no additional operational changes. Recent data show inflation running higher than expected but still projected to return to the 2 % target as temporary pressures fade; growth is subdued, with cautious household spending and an unimproved labour market despite near-normal business confidence. Internationally, persistent geopolitical tensions and US tariff negotiations sustain uncertainty. The Executive Board sees “some probability” of a further rate cut later this year and stressed that future moves will depend on incoming data and evolving risks to inflation and activity.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Riksbank lowered the policy rate from 2 per cent to 1.75 per cent, cutting in June and September 2025 and then holding it unchanged. The June cut reflected a recovery that had lost momentum, a softer inflation outlook, weak growth and high unemployment, while an August pause treated above-target inflation as temporary despite weak activity, and the September cut followed signs of easing inflation pressures even as the recovery and labour-market improvement remained delayed.
During subsequent holds through June 2026, the Riksbank said inflation had moved close to target and then below forecast while activity improved only tentatively, but uncertainty widened from trade policy and domestic demand to the war in the Middle East, energy and commodity prices, the krona and fiscal policy. On 17 June, it judged that underlying inflation was low and activity somewhat weaker than normal, but raised its policy-rate forecast somewhat and flagged a greater probability of an increase later in 2026 as war-related supply disruptions lifted inflationary pressures.
On 20 August, the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, noting that growth and inflation had exceeded its June forecast but that subdued company pricing plans, fewer global supply-chain disruptions and weaker-than-expected labour-market developments left the overall outlook largely unchanged. On 24 September, it again held the rate at 1.75 per cent, but said stronger, broad-based activity and continued supply shocks meant the policy rate should rise more than projected in June, with increases expected to begin in 2026 if the outlook remained unchanged, as inflation pressures remained above normal despite measures of underlying inflation being relatively close to 2 per cent.