- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- policy interest rate
- 4.25%
The Monetary Board of the Bank of Guatemala cut the policy “leading interest rate” by 25 bp to 4.25 % at its 27 August 2025 meeting, citing inflation that has remained below the 4 % ± 1 pp target range since July and forecasts showing it will stay under the band’s floor in 2025 and below the 4 % midpoint in 2026 even as domestic activity proves more dynamic, with the 2025 GDP growth projection raised to 4.0 % (from 3.8 %) and the 2026 forecast held at 3.9 %. The move follows four consecutive meetings—from March through June—at which the rate was left unchanged at 4.50 %. The Board noted that international inflation continues to moderate and oil prices are well below last year’s levels, while the International Monetary Fund’s July update pointed to stronger‐than‐expected global growth amid lingering downside risks. Stressing that “low‐inflation conditions” persist, the Board said the rate cut represents a calibrated policy easing to reinforce well‐anchored expectations and guide inflation back toward the medium‐term target, and it reiterated its readiness to take further action as incoming domestic and external data warrant.
Rate evolution
From May 2025 to September 2026, Bank of Guatemala's Monetary Board cut the policy rate by 100 basis points to 3.50%, after holding at 4.50% through June, delivering three straight 25 basis-point reductions from August to November, and cutting by a further 25 basis points in February before holding from March through June, and in August and September. The initial holds came even though inflation was below the lower bound of the 4.0% +/- 1 percentage point target because domestic activity remained dynamic and external uncertainty was high, but as fuel prices fell, food supply shocks faded and inflation forecasts shifted lower, the Board eased to anchor inflation expectations and guide inflation toward the medium-term target midpoint.
At its 18 February 2026 decision, the Monetary Board said the global outlook remained positive despite trade and geopolitical risks and attributed below-bound January inflation to favorable food supply shocks and lower fuel prices, then held the policy rate at 3.50% from March through June as domestic activity matched projected 2026 growth of 3.1% to 5.1% and inflation forecasts and expectations pointed to inflation within target in 2026 and 2027.
On 26 August, the Board unanimously held the policy rate at 3.50%, noting that short-term activity indicators were consistent with 2026 growth of 3.3% to 5.3%, while inflation rose to 2.70% in July from 2.27% in June following the end of the fuel subsidy and amid imported inflation pressures. On 23 September, it again unanimously held the rate at 3.50%, with global growth prospects remaining positive despite high uncertainty, most short-term domestic indicators still consistent with that growth estimate, and inflation rising to 3.37% in August, below the 4.0% target midpoint. The increase mainly reflected higher international fuel prices, alongside emerging increases in some food prices, but forecasts and expectations continued to indicate inflation within target in 2026 and 2027, and the Board judged upside risks from persistently high fuel prices and possible El Niño effects to be contained for the moment.