- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- reference rate
- 4.75%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council cut the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate by 25 bp to 4.75 % and lowered the lombard, deposit, rediscount and discount rates to 5.25 %, 4.25 %, 4.80 % and 4.85 %, respectively, citing continued disinflation amid still-firm domestic demand and wages. This marks a cumulative 100 bp of easing since May, when the reference rate stood at 5.75 % before 50 bp and 25 bp cuts in May and July. The Council noted August CPI slowed to 2.8 % y/y from 3.1 % in July, with core inflation also easing, while Q2 GDP growth quickened to 3.4 % y/y on stronger consumption and July data showed positive retail sales, industrial output and construction activity despite persistently elevated wage gains. External conditions were mixed, with euro-area GDP up 1.4 % y/y and inflation near the European Central Bank’s target, whereas US growth reached 2.1 % with price pressures still slightly above the Federal Reserve’s goal; global outlook risks stem from shifting trade policies. The central bank reaffirmed its readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market and said future policy moves will hinge on incoming data, highlighting fiscal stance, rebounding consumption, high wages, administered energy prices and external inflation as key uncertainties in achieving its medium-term inflation target.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.