- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 14%
The Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan on 11 September 2025 kept the key rate at 14 percent per annum, arguing that a “relatively tight” stance is still required to lock in August’s fall in headline inflation to 8.8 percent and steer core inflation, now 7.6 percent, lower despite buoyant economic activity and services-price pressures. After a 50 bp hike to 14 percent in March, the rate has been unchanged at subsequent meetings. The Bank said holding the line sustains the appeal of savings, curbs rapid credit growth and supports balanced money-market pricing. GDP expanded by 7.2 percent in the first half, propelled by firm services, industry, construction and agriculture, while robust cross-border transfers, credit acceleration, higher budget spending and investment continue to buoy demand; inflation is forecast around 8.7 percent by end-2025. A stable exchange rate and seasonal factors have damped inflation expectations, yet lingering global trade frictions, higher world food costs and above-target inflation in partner countries pose upside risks to imported prices. The Board reiterated readiness to tighten further if price pressures exceed projections, and will reassess the stance at its 23 October 2025 meeting.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.