- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 15.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) left the key policy rate at 15.5 percent per annum, judging that the current tight stance is still needed to preserve foreign-exchange (FX) market stability, keep inflation expectations in check and steer consumer-price growth toward the 5 percent target, even as headline inflation eased for a third month to 13.2 percent y/y in August and core inflation fell to 11.4 percent. After lifting the rate by a cumulative 100 bp to 15.5 percent in March, the NBU has held it unchanged at each meeting since. The central bank notes that nominal yields on hryvnia assets have stabilised while real returns have risen, supporting further growth in term deposits and local-currency government bond holdings and containing household FX demand. International partners have disbursed more than USD 30 bn so far this year, including USD 7.5 bn in July–August, allowing reserves to increase to USD 46 bn and covering critical budget needs. The full-scale war remains the dominant source of upside inflation risk, amplified by potential shortfalls in future external financing, labour-market pressures and volatile global conditions. Consistent with its July macroeconomic forecast, the NBU still envisages starting a rate-cut cycle in Q4 2025 but warns it will postpone easing or tighten further if pro-inflationary risks intensify.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15.5% through 2025, cut it by 50 basis points to 15% in January 2026, paused, and subsequently raised it in two 50-basis-point steps to 16%. Through most of 2025, it kept a tight stance to support FX market sustainability and keep inflation expectations in check as inflation, peaking in May and then slowing, remained above forecast at times and underlying pressures from wages, labor shortages, energy costs, demand and war-related disruption persisted. Late in 2025, the risk balance turned more hawkish, with greater emphasis on energy shortages, larger budgetary needs and uncertainty over external assistance, even as harvests and official financing supported disinflation and reserves.
After the January cut, the NBU held at 15% as inflation rose on energy and fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East, hryvnia weakness and faster wage growth, before raising it to 15.5% as persistent pressures from logistics, wage and energy costs continued despite increased raw food supply. Most recently, it raised the key policy rate to 16% in view of persistent underlying price pressures, second-round effects from supply shocks and higher medium-term inflation risks, after consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year on year in August, primarily on a greater-than-expected rise in fuel prices amid escalation in the Middle East and faster increases in administered tariffs due largely to Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure. The increase aims to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, maintain FX market sustainability, keep inflation expectations in check and return inflation toward the 5% target, while the NBU said it stood ready to tighten further if risks intensified or consider easing if the security situation noticeably weakened consumer demand and the labor market.