- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- base rate
- 6%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova cut the base rate on main short-term operations by 25 bp to 6.00% per annum on 18 September 2025, lowering the overnight loan and deposit rates to 8.00% and 4.00% respectively and the repo rate to 6.25%, while keeping reserve requirements unchanged, to reinforce monetary easing aimed at steering inflation back to the 5% ± 1.5 pp target as aggregate demand remains subdued. After lifting the benchmark by 90 bp to 6.50% in February, the central bank held it through mid-year before trimming a cumulative 50 bp in August and September. The corridor around the policy rate thus narrows to ±2 pp, and the bank expects the rate cuts to translate gradually into lower market lending and deposit rates. Annual inflation slowed to 7.3% in August, down 0.6 pp on the month yet still above the target band; the August Inflation Report projects a continued decline with a return to target in December, while the risk balance is viewed as broadly neutral with a disinflationary tilt. Economic output stayed in negative territory in Q2 despite some signs of recovery: June industrial production rose 3.2% y/y, but exports fell 7.7% while imports grew 23.1%, and remittances and wages continued to increase. Externally, lingering trade and geopolitical tensions are tempered by an improving euro-area outlook, softer European gas prices and OPEC+ supply decisions, though global food prices are projected to rise further. The central bank will keep a close watch on domestic and external developments, noting significant uncertainties, and says future policy moves will depend on updated inflation prospects; the next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 6 November 2025.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.