- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- repo rate
- 3.5%
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.50 percent on 26 September 2025, judging that subdued headline inflation of 1.4 percent year-on-year in August and a 2.1 percent GDP contraction in the first quarter, alongside mixed energy output and tepid non-energy activity, outweighed global uncertainties stemming from heightened geopolitical tensions and softer world growth. The policy rate has remained at 3.50 percent since at least March 2025. Liquidity has tightened—commercial banks’ excess reserves averaged TTD 4.2 bn in August before slipping to TTD 3.9 bn in early September—contributing to a slowdown in private-sector credit growth to 7.7 percent in July from 9.1 percent in April. The TT-US three-month Treasury rate gap narrowed to ‑175 bp in August from ‑222 bp in May as U.S. yields fell after the Federal Reserve cut its target range to 4.00–4.25 percent. The committee noted easing energy prices and generally accommodative global monetary stances but cautioned that external and geopolitical risks continue to cloud the outlook. It pledged ongoing vigilance over international and domestic developments; the next Monetary Policy Announcement is set for 31 December 2025.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to June 2026, the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.50%, maintaining a prolonged pause as inflation stayed low and domestic growth softened while external uncertainty rose. Early decisions emphasised contained headline and core inflation, favourable financial conditions and initially strong but moderating credit growth, alongside slowing non-energy activity, with the Monetary Policy Committee also watching credit quality, liquidity conditions and the effects of fiscal financing.
By late 2025, the Committee said the economy still needed support because gains in the energy sector were being offset by weaker non-energy momentum, but it placed greater weight on external stability, citing the narrower Trinidad and Tobago-United States rate differential, the risk that wage adjustments could lift demand and imports, and the need to safeguard foreign reserves. In March 2026, as war in the Middle East lifted energy prices and market volatility, the Bank again held, judging that well-contained inflation, slower credit growth and non-energy weakness warranted supportive funding conditions, while stressing uncertainty, reserve adequacy risks and readiness to adjust policy if needed. It maintained the repo rate again in June 2026, noting that headline inflation had eased to 0.3% in May and core inflation was unchanged at 0.8%, while overall activity may have slowed in the first quarter as natural gas constraints moderated energy output and uncertainty weighed on business confidence and investment in the non-energy sector. The Committee also cited slower private sector credit growth, ample system liquidity and a less favourable global backdrop of weaker growth prospects, elevated inflation and tightening monetary conditions, and said it would continue to monitor developments and take further actions as necessary.