- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- reference rate
- 4.5%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council cut the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate by 25 bp to 4.50 % at its 7–8 October meeting, without offering any updated assessment of inflation or activity in the brief decision notice. This is the third straight 25 bp reduction since July, taking the policy rate down from 5.25 % prior to the easing cycle. The lombard, deposit, rediscount and bill-discount rates were lowered to 5.00 %, 4.00 %, 4.55 % and 4.60 % respectively, with the new levels effective 9 October 2025. No additional implementation details, macroeconomic commentary or forward-guidance were provided, with a fuller statement scheduled for release at 16:00 on 8 October.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.