- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept the key policy rate at 6.50 % on 8 October 2025, judging that a tax- and energy-induced surge in inflation—headline CPI jumped to 7.84 % y/y in July and 9.85 % in August, while CORE2 inflation rose to 7.9 %—remains largely transitory and will eventually be offset by the demand-sapping effect of July’s fiscal-budgetary consolidation package. The policy rate has been steady at 6.50 % in every meeting since at least January 2025. The overnight standing-facility corridor was unchanged at 5.50 %–7.50 %, required-reserve ratios were left intact and the central bank pledged to manage liquidity conditions. GDP rebounded 1.2 % q/q in Q2, limiting the widening of the negative output gap, but the bank now anticipates near-stagnation in H2; private-sector credit growth slowed to 8.0 % y/y in August from 9.1 % in June. A smaller rise in the trade and current-account deficits has coincided with a volatile leu amid shifting global rate expectations and domestic fiscal debates. Policymakers underlined persistent external risks from global trade frictions and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, noted uncertainty around further fiscal measures, and reiterated their readiness to act as needed to safeguard medium-term price and financial stability while emphasising the importance of a balanced macro-policy mix and full use of EU funds.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.