- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 15.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) left the key policy rate unchanged at 15.5 percent, citing still-elevated inflation expectations and growing risks from energy shortages and larger fiscal needs even as headline inflation slowed to 11.9 percent y/y in September and core inflation eased only marginally to 11.0 percent; the stance aims to preserve the appeal of hryvnia assets, support FX-market stability and keep disinflation on track toward the 5 percent target by end-2027. After two 100 bp hikes in January and March pushed the rate to 15.5 percent, the NBU has held it steady at every meeting since. Existing operational settings remain in place, with tight monetary conditions judged sufficient to underpin term deposit rates and a credit expansion of more than 30 percent y/y to firms and households. The central bank now projects CPI to fall to 9.2 percent in 2025 and 6.6 percent in 2026, while trimming its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.9 percent due to war-related energy disruptions and labour shortages, before a gradual pickup to 2.0 percent in 2026 and 2.8 percent in 2027. External support of about USD 13 bn received in August–October, plus an expected USD 15 bn by year-end, is deemed adequate to finance the budget gap and keep reserves robust, though prolonged war, irregular aid flows and less favourable global conditions remain key threats. The baseline outlook envisages the first rate cuts in Q1 2026, but the NBU stands ready to delay easing if pro-inflation risks intensify or to accelerate it if those risks recede.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15.5% through 2025, cut it by 50 basis points to 15% in January 2026, paused, and subsequently raised it in two 50-basis-point steps to 16%. Through most of 2025, it kept a tight stance to support FX market sustainability and keep inflation expectations in check as inflation, peaking in May and then slowing, remained above forecast at times and underlying pressures from wages, labor shortages, energy costs, demand and war-related disruption persisted. Late in 2025, the risk balance turned more hawkish, with greater emphasis on energy shortages, larger budgetary needs and uncertainty over external assistance, even as harvests and official financing supported disinflation and reserves.
After the January cut, the NBU held at 15% as inflation rose on energy and fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East, hryvnia weakness and faster wage growth, before raising it to 15.5% as persistent pressures from logistics, wage and energy costs continued despite increased raw food supply. Most recently, it raised the key policy rate to 16% in view of persistent underlying price pressures, second-round effects from supply shocks and higher medium-term inflation risks, after consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year on year in August, primarily on a greater-than-expected rise in fuel prices amid escalation in the Middle East and faster increases in administered tariffs due largely to Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure. The increase aims to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, maintain FX market sustainability, keep inflation expectations in check and return inflation toward the 5% target, while the NBU said it stood ready to tighten further if risks intensified or consider easing if the security situation noticeably weakened consumer demand and the labor market.