- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- cash rate
- 3.6%
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board left the cash rate at 3.60 per cent at its 4 November meeting, citing an unexpected pick-up in underlying inflation alongside a still-tight labour market and a recovering but uncertain domestic outlook. After cutting the rate by a cumulative 75 bp between February and August, the Board has now held steady for two consecutive meetings. No changes were announced to the operating framework, with the statement only noting that financial conditions have eased since the start of 2025. Trimmed-mean CPI quickened to 1.0 per cent q/q and 3.0 per cent y/y in Q3, above the August forecasts, while headline inflation rebounded to 3.2 per cent as electricity rebates expired; the November outlook assumes one more rate cut in 2026 and sees underlying inflation peaking above 3 per cent before easing to 2.6 per cent in 2027. Private consumption and housing activity are strengthening and credit is readily available, yet employment growth has moderated and the jobless rate inched up to 4.5 per cent in September even as vacancies remain high and unit labour costs elevated. Although global growth forecasts have been revised up modestly, trade tensions and wider geopolitical risks keep external uncertainty high. The Board remains cautious and data-dependent, pledging to watch inflation, labour-market trends and global developments closely and to act as needed to ensure price stability and full employment.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate target rose by a net 50 basis points to 4.35%, after an August cut and a pause through December gave way to three consecutive hikes from February, before the Board left the rate unchanged on 16 June and 11 August 2026. That early easing and the ensuing hold reflected substantial disinflation, with underlying inflation near the midpoint of the 2–3% range, while private demand recovered only gradually and the Board weighed weak productivity, high unit labour costs, tight labour conditions and elevated global uncertainty. By late 2025, however, the Board said underlying inflation had picked up, private demand and housing were strengthening and financial conditions had eased, shifting its language from more balanced inflation risks to a more cautious assessment of persistence and upside risk.
In subsequent decisions, it judged that stronger-than-expected private demand, greater capacity pressures, a tight labour market and fuel price increases linked to the conflict in the Middle East were likely to keep inflation above target for some time, with higher inflation expectations and possible second-round effects tilting risks to the upside despite heightened uncertainty and the possibility of weaker activity. Holding the cash rate target at 4.35% in June, the Board said headline and underlying inflation were still too high and that the disruption to global oil supply was adding to inflation and passing through to other prices, but it also noted tighter financial conditions, signs consumer spending was slowing as expected, a shift in housing market momentum and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate in April, and judged it appropriate to assess the effects of earlier increases and the oil supply disruption while remaining prepared to raise the cash rate target further if required. In August, the Board again held the rate at 4.35%, judging monetary policy somewhat restrictive and the economy to be slowing as expected, while noting that headline inflation remained too high, trimmed mean inflation was elevated and little changed, and capacity pressures and higher energy costs were likely to keep inflation high for some time, with upside risks warranting a further increase if they materialised.