- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- reference rate
- 4.25%
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland cut the NBP reference rate by 25 bp to 4.25 percent on 5 November 2025, arguing that the ongoing decline in headline and core inflation and a better inflation outlook justify further easing despite resilient domestic activity. After holding rates steady through April, the Council has delivered four consecutive 25 bp reductions since July. It also lowered the lombard and deposit rates to 4.75 percent and 3.75 percent, maintaining a symmetrical corridor. Consumer price inflation slowed to 2.8 percent y/y in October, and the November NECMOD projection now sees 2025 CPI near 3.7 percent alongside GDP growth of roughly 3–4 percent; September data showed higher retail sales, industrial output and construction, while wage growth eased and employment fell. Externally, euro-area growth cooled to 1.3 percent in Q3 and US momentum weakened, with euro-area inflation near target and US inflation above target amid persistent trade-policy uncertainty. Future policy moves will hinge on incoming data, with the Council flagging fiscal stance, demand recovery, wage pressures, energy costs and foreign inflation as key risks, and it reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market to safeguard stability.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.