- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- base rate
- 6%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova on 6 November 2025 kept the base rate for short-term operations unchanged at 6.00 % and left the overnight lending, repo and deposit rates at 8.00 %, 6.25 % and 4.00 %, while trimming required-reserve ratios to 20 % on MDL/non-convertible FX liabilities and 29 % on freely convertible FX funds to boost liquidity, cut credit costs and support demand as it seeks to return inflation to the 5 % target ±1.5 pp. After lifting the base rate by 90 bp to 6.50 % in February, the central bank held it through mid-year before cutting 25 bp in August and 25 bp in September to the current level. Annual inflation fell to 6.9 % in September from 8.2 % in June and is projected to slip back inside the target band in early 2026, averaging 7.7 % in 2025 and 4.3 % in 2026; Q2 GDP returned to 1.1 % y/y growth, supported by industrial output rising 4.9 % in July-August. Brent crude hovered near USD 69/barrel amid global oversupply, while European gas and food prices showed signs of moderation. The Board cited resilient global activity but flagged persisting geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and energy-price risks. It pledged to continue carefully calibrated easing to anchor expectations and sustain consumption and investment, with the next policy assessment scheduled for 12 December 2025.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.