- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- central bank rate
- 9.75%
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Uganda on 10 November 2025 left the Central Bank Rate (CBR) unchanged at 9.75%, judging this level sufficient to keep inflation anchored near the 5 % medium-term target while the domestic economy strengthens. After maintaining the CBR at 9.75 % in its February, May and August meetings, the committee again opted for no change. The operating band remains at ±2 percentage points, with the rediscount and bank rates fixed at 12.75 % and 13.75 %, respectively. Headline and core inflation both fell to 3.4 % y/y in October, pushing 12-month averages to 3.6 % and 3.9 %; core inflation is now projected at 4.0–4.5 % in FY2025/26, still under the 5 % goal. Real GDP grew by 6.3 % in FY2024/25 and is forecast to rise 6.5–7.0 % in FY2025/26, with medium-term growth seen around 8 %, supported by agriculture, industry and the Tenfold Growth Strategy. A firmer Ugandan shilling and easing global inflation are tempering price pressures, though the bank cautioned that weaker capital inflows, delayed oil revenues or renewed global supply shocks could reignite exchange-rate and energy-price risks, while tighter external financing conditions and trade barriers pose downside threats to growth. The committee reiterated that any future policy moves will depend on incoming data and its assessment of evolving domestic and global risks.
Rate evolution
From August 2025 to August 2026, the Bank of Uganda kept the Central Bank Rate unchanged at 9.75%, maintaining a cautious hold as inflation stayed modest and growth remained resilient. Early decisions stressed subdued headline and core inflation, helped by prudent monetary policy, a stable or stronger exchange rate, easing global inflation and favourable food and energy prices, while balancing that against external uncertainty from trade dynamics and geopolitics and domestic upside risks from exchange-rate pressures, public spending and adverse weather. By November 2025, the inflation outlook had shifted to broadly balanced as forecasts were revised lower, but in February 2026 the Bank again stressed elevated two-sided risks, adding possible demand pressures from a positive output gap and more expansionary fiscal policy, while still seeing growth strengthen even as risks to activity stayed tilted to the downside.
In May 2026, however, the Bank held the Central Bank Rate at 9.75% while judging that the Middle East conflict, higher oil prices and shilling depreciation had clouded the outlook, pushed the near-term core inflation projection up to 5.0-5.3%, tilted inflation risks to the upside and warranted an agile, data-dependent stance with readiness to act as needed, alongside a higher Cash Reserve Requirement to contain liquidity. In August, it again held the rate at 9.75% as lower international oil prices and a stabilising shilling improved the outlook and lowered the 12-month core inflation forecast to 4.0-4.5%, though risks remained tilted to the upside and concerns that higher food, fuel and other input costs could broaden inflation supported continued caution.