- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50 % on 12 November 2025, arguing that a still-elevated 9.76 % October headline CPI and 8.1 % core inflation, coupled with lingering domestic fiscal uncertainty and external geopolitical and trade risks, call for continued caution even though its new Inflation Report foresees only a modest decline in inflation over the next three quarters before a sharp drop in Q3 2026 and a return to within target in Q1 2027. The key rate has been steady at 6.50 % since January 2025. The Lombard and deposit facility rates stay at 7.50 % and 5.50 % respectively, compulsory reserve ratios are unchanged, and interbank money-market rates have eased in early Q4 while government bond yields have fallen to 12-month lows. Domestically, GDP rose 1.2 % q/q in Q2 (0.3 % y/y) but high-frequency data point to near-stagnation in H2; private-sector credit growth decelerated to 7.5 % y/y in September. On the external side, stronger export performance relative to imports has narrowed trade and current-account gaps, while the leu’s early-October slide against the EUR has since been partly reversed. The Board will keep monitoring local and global developments—among them ongoing trade frictions, the war in Ukraine and higher EU defence spending—and stands ready to act to safeguard medium-term price and financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.