- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- central bank rate
- 6.75%
The National Bank of Rwanda’s Monetary Policy Committee left the Central Bank Rate (CBR) unchanged at 6.75 percent for the next three months, judging the current stance sufficient to keep headline inflation—which rose to 7.2 percent y/y in 2025Q3 but is projected to average 6.9 percent in 2025 before easing to 5.8 percent in 2026—within the 2-8 percent target range while the economy remains robust. The hold follows a 25 bp hike in August that lifted the CBR from 6.50 percent, ending a period of earlier easing. Money-market conditions remain loose, with the Q3 interbank rate down 140 bp y/y to 5.85 percent and deposit rates 169 bp lower at 8.67 percent despite the recent policy increase, reflecting abundant banking-system liquidity. Real GDP expanded 7.8 percent y/y in 2025Q2, and the Composite Index of Economic Activity grew 13.2 percent in Q3, underpinned by services and industry, while exports jumped 15.0 percent and imports rose 7.4 percent, nudging the trade deficit 2.8 percent wider. The Rwandan franc depreciated 4.03 percent against the USD in the year to end-September, an improvement on the 6.49 percent fall a year earlier, helped by a softer dollar and tighter FX market regulations. The committee highlighted risks from adverse weather and geopolitical tensions but affirmed it will continue to monitor developments and stands ready to act to safeguard price stability.
Rate evolution
From August to November 2025, the National Bank of Rwanda raised the Central Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent and then held it there. The August increase was framed as a pre-emptive step to keep inflation within the 2 to 8 percent target range after forecasts were revised up, even though headline inflation had stabilised at 6.7 percent in the second quarter, with the Bank citing seasonal weakness in agricultural output, administered price adjustments and fiscal measures, alongside adverse weather, international commodity and trade uncertainty, and supply chain pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. The decision also came against a backdrop of resilient domestic growth, strong services and industry activity, improved external trade dynamics and reduced foreign-exchange pressures.
In November, the Monetary Policy Committee kept the rate at 6.75 percent as headline inflation rose to 7.2 percent in the third quarter on higher core and energy inflation, but judged the stance adequate because inflation was projected to remain within target, while warning that weather shocks and geopolitical tensions could lift imported prices.
By August 26, 2026, the rate stood at 8.25 percent, and the Committee raised it by 50 basis points to 8.75 percent after inflation increased from 9.1 percent in the first quarter to 13.2 percent in the second quarter and 14.5 percent in July. Although inflation was projected to average 13.1 percent in 2026, slightly below the previous forecast of 13.9 percent, the Bank cited risks from El Niño and continued Middle East tensions and said the increase would anchor inflation expectations, limit second-round effects and support inflation’s return to the target range in the second half of 2027.