- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- reference rate
- 4%
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland lowered the NBP reference rate by 25 bp to 4.00 % on 3 December, judging the further decline in headline and core inflation and its subdued outlook to justify additional easing. This move extends a cycle that has taken the policy rate down by a cumulative 175 bp since May, including a 50 bp cut in May and four subsequent 25 bp trims through November. The lombard, deposit, rediscount and discount rates were set at 4.50 %, 3.50 %, 4.05 % and 4.10 %, respectively, with the central bank reaffirming its readiness to intervene in the FX market to preserve stability. Annual CPI inflation fell to 2.4 % in November from 2.8 % in October, while GDP growth quickened to 3.8 % y/y in Q3 on stronger domestic demand even as enterprise wage growth eased and employment continued to decline. Externally, euro-area inflation is near the ECB’s target whereas U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s goal, and the global activity and price outlook is described as uncertain. The council stressed that future decisions will hinge on incoming data, with fiscal settings, demand recovery, wage dynamics, energy prices and foreign inflation flagged as key risks to the inflation path.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.