- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference rate
- 4.25%
The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) left the reference rate unchanged at 4.25 percent at its 11 December 2025 meeting, judging that November’s −0.11 percent monthly headline inflation and year-on-year headline and core rates of 1.4 percent and 1.8 percent, together with stable 12-month inflation expectations at 2.2 percent, keep price dynamics comfortably inside the 1–3 percent target band while economic activity remains around potential and sentiment indicators stay in optimistic territory amid moderating global growth and easing trade tensions. After cutting the rate by a cumulative 50 bp through 25 bp moves in May and September, the central bank has now held steady for three consecutive meetings. Operational rates were maintained, with overnight deposits at 2.25 percent and security/currency repo and rediscount facilities at 4.75 percent for the first ten operations in the past three months, with higher rates possible thereafter. The Board reiterated its vigilance over inflation, expectations and activity and pledged to adjust the monetary stance if needed to keep inflation within the target range.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru held the reference rate at 4.50% in July 2025, lowered it by 25 basis points to 4.25% in September 2025 after several months on hold, and kept it unchanged through September 2026. The early pause reflected headline inflation and inflation without food and energy of 1.7% in June 2025, one-year-ahead inflation expectations of 2.3% within the target range, and activity around potential, while the September cut followed a temporary fall in headline inflation and the Board’s assessment that the rate was close to neutral.
At its June 11, 2026 meeting, the Board held the reference rate at 4.25%, noting that annual headline inflation eased to 3.9% in May, and on July 9 it again left the rate unchanged as headline inflation rose to 4.0% in June and inflation without food and energy to 4.5%, while expectations fell to 2.8% and activity indicators continued to perform well. In August, the Board maintained the rate as annual headline inflation increased to 4.1% in July, inflation without food and energy reached 4.6%, and 12-month inflation expectations rose to 3.0%, the upper limit of the target range. On September 10, it again held the rate at 4.25% as annual headline inflation rose to 4.4% in August, mainly because of a base effect, while inflation without food and energy declined to 4.5% and 12-month expectations increased to 3.1%, slightly above the target range. The Board projected both inflation measures would return to the target range and settle around 2% as supply-shock effects dissipated, but flagged risks from a more persistent El Niño and Middle East tensions and said it remained attentive to inflation, expectations, activity and the duration of supply shocks.