- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 14%
The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept its policy rate at 14 % per annum at the 11 December 2025 meeting, judging that existing tight monetary settings are steadily cooling headline and core inflation and tempering expectations despite lingering upside risks from firm domestic demand, supply factors and elevated services prices. The rate has remained at 14 % since a 50 bp increase in March 2025. With nominal rates steady while inflation falls, the Central Bank noted rising real rates that are spurring soum-denominated time-deposit growth and pledged to preserve sufficiently restrictive conditions to reach the 5 % inflation target. Headline inflation slowed to 7.5 % y/y in November and core to 6.3 %, leading the Bank to trim its forecasts to about 7.3 % for end-2025 and 6.5 % for end-2026; GDP growth is projected at a buoyant 7–7.5 % this year, underpinned by strong labour demand and vibrant trade and services, though rapid retail lending could rekindle price pressures. A sharper-than-expected appreciation of the soum and lower import prices have reinforced disinflation, while high global commodity prices are supporting export receipts and keeping the real effective exchange rate near its equilibrium. The Bank will adjust its stance as needed in line with inflation and risk developments, with the next rate review scheduled for 28 January 2026.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.