- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 100 bps
- base rate
- 5%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova cut the base rate on main short-term operations by 100 bp to 5.0 %, intensifying monetary easing to bolster subdued aggregate demand and guide inflation back to the 5 percent ±1.5 point target band. After a February hike, the Board has lowered the rate three times since August, marking a cumulative 1.5 pp of cuts. The move, accompanied by lower standing facility rates, is expected to feed through to market borrowing costs and encourage consumption and investment. Annual CPI remained at 6.99 % in November—above the ceiling—yet the November Inflation Report confirms a return to the band in December and persistence near its lower edge from early 2026, while industrial output rose 9 % in September amid still-disinflationary demand conditions. Continued declines in global oil and European gas prices and a softer food-price outlook reinforce the downward tilt to inflation risks, though geopolitical tensions persist. The next policy review is set for 5 February 2026.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.